According to statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s wood product exports to the U.S. reached $9.1 billion in 2024, marking a 24% increase compared to 2023. With the U.S. accounting for over 50% of Vietnam’s total furniture exports, it remains a high-potential market. However, given the current trade imbalance between the two countries, certain risks persist.
Among Vietnam’s wood product exports to the U.S., wooden furniture dominates, representing 95.5% of total export value. This category also delivers the highest added value to the industry.
Competitive Advantages
In 2024, wooden-framed chairs led the list, generating $3 billion in export value, a 34.9% increase from 2023. Living room and dining room furniture followed, reaching $2.2 billion (up 28.9%), while bedroom furniture reached $1.9 billion (up 44%). Other categories, such as wood panels, flooring, wooden doors, and handicrafts, also experienced substantial growth.
According to the U.S. International Trade Commission, Vietnam has become the largest furniture supplier to the U.S., surpassing China and the EU. Notably, while U.S. imports from China and the EU declined, imports from Vietnam continued to rise. This reflects a strong demand for Vietnamese furniture products. Vietnamese furniture offers competitive prices and complies with sustainable sourcing certifications (e.g., FSC). Given this current growth trajectory, experts predict that Vietnam’s wood product exports to the U.S. will exceed $10 billion in 2025.
Additionally, the National Association of Home Builders projects that 30-year U.S. mortgage rates will drop below 6% by the end of 2025, stimulating the real estate market and driving demand for home furnishings.
Uncertainty and Trade Pressure
Despite promising opportunities, Vietnamese wood businesses face significant challenges. In a short period under President Donald Trump, a series of new tariff policies were introduced. While Vietnamese wood exports have not been directly affected, the overall export landscape remains uncertain. According to Truong Thuy Linh, Deputy Director of the Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam, the U.S. initiated 11 out of 27 trade defense investigations against Vietnam in 2024 alone. Increasingly, the U.S. is also conducting dual investigations, probing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy violations within a single case.
Furthermore, U.S. trade defense policies are frequently evolving. In the past two years, the U.S. revised its trade defense framework twice, introducing unprecedented new concepts such as cross-border subsidies – a policy not yet recognized by the WTO. Given the flurry of policy changes under President Trump’s administration, future shifts in U.S. trade policies remain a strong possibility.
Another concern is the U.S. does not recognize Vietnam as a market economy, complicating anti-dumping and countervailing duty cases. Instead of using Vietnamese company data, U.S. investigators rely on third-country benchmarks (previously Indonesia and India, now shifting to higher-cost countries), this could lead to inflated dumping margins. Vietnamese enterprises must proactively prepare for potential future allegations.
Agreeing with this outlook, Nguyen Hoai Bao, Vice Chairman of HAWA, emphasized that tariff risks remain a concern for all Vietnamese exports to the U.S., not just for the wood industry. However, he stated that Vietnam still holds an advantage over competitors like China. “Inflation is the bigger concern. While inflation has eased somewhat and exports have risen in 2024, Trump’s economic and political policies could slow U.S. construction, affecting the furniture market,” Bảo stated. He added that furniture is not an essential product, so prolonged inflation would further strain consumer spending in this category.
Strengthening the Supply Chain
While Vietnamese businesses have largely complied with legal timber traceability requirements, more proactive efforts are needed to prevent accusations of origin fraud. Virginia Foote, Chair of the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, explained that both the WTO and the U.S. are revising tariff-based origin rules. For instance, a product made in Vietnam and exported to the U.S. would typically be considered Vietnamese-origin. However, the U.S. Congress is debating stricter input evaluations. If 30-50% of a product’s materials originate from China, corresponding tariffs could be applied to that portion. Ownership rules are also under review-if a Vietnamese factory is Chinese-owned, its exported products may face differentiated tariffs. Foote advised that the Vietnamese government should engage in diplomatic discussions with Washington to mitigate potential disadvantages.
Giovanni Rojas, a board member of AmCham, further emphasized that Vietnam should continue to review its end-to-end supply chain, and localize production as much as possible-from raw materials and design to manufacturing and finished products. “Vietnam needs a long-term strategy to adapt to evolving tariff policies and regulations, reducing export risks and optimizing opportunities,” Rojas said.
By Ha Phuong
